Diplomats must be careful not to allow a war that will end in a global catastrophe, former Swedish Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Carl Bildt wrote in an article for The National Interest.
The vast expanses of Eurasia are limited by two sides of militancy. On the Western front, Russia is transferring troops to regions near Ukraine's borders, which is already sparking a wave of speculation about possible motives. And in the east, China's behavior toward Taiwan is becoming increasingly worrying. A sensational study by an American think tank concludes that the United States will have "little credibility" if China launches a massive attack on the island.
In both cases, the strategic intentions of the aggressor are clear. Xi Jinping's Chinese government has repeatedly called for "unification" of the country, seeing it as an appropriate end to the civil war. After World War II, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) took over the mainland, but failed to eliminate Chiang Kai-shek's nationalists. They withdrew to Taiwan (and some of the smaller islands), which has since remained out of the CCP's power.
Some of China's statements on "unification" predict that it will be achieved in a purely peaceful way, but in other cases, Chinese leaders have missed that detail. And in expanding and rearming its military, China is focusing on the potential to conquer Taiwan if it ever dares to declare independence.
Most countries, including the United States, have long pursued a "one China" policy, refraining from officially recognizing Taiwan as an independent state. However, in the absence of formal diplomatic ties with the island, many countries are developing relations through other channels, in particular through trade and technology. Taiwan is a world leader in the production of the latest microchips. It is also a brilliant story of democratic success. If Chinese society in Taiwan can be democratic, this political perspective will sooner or later spread to the mainland.
The situation in Ukraine on the other side of Eurasia is strikingly different from that in Taiwan, not least because Russia has officially recognized its independence. The occupation and annexation of Crimea by President Vladimir Putin in 2014 was declared illegal and condemned by an overwhelming majority in the UN General Assembly (only 11 countries voted against the resolution).
Yet Putin recently published a long but remarkable essay claiming that Russia, Ukraine and Belarus are historically connected. He is convinced that Ukrainian or Belarusian sovereignty can only be achieved together with Russia, under the supreme authority of the Kremlin. Putin has gone so far in his revisionism that he has even criticized Ukraine's officially independent status in the Soviet constitution (although that didn't mean anything at the time).
Putin's strategic intentions are clear: he considers Ukraine's independence unbearable and does not intend to accept it. Like China with its plans for Taiwan, Russia has prepared and equipped its military forces for the specific purpose of invading and conquering Ukraine before the occupation is thwarted by an outside power. In addition to the conquest of Crimea, the Kremlin has already sent regular troops to Ukraine, for example in the eastern region of Donbass in August 2014 and again in February 2015. One has the feeling that Putin is ready and eager to launch a new invasion, if not and a much larger operation.
No one doubts that China's military takeover of Taiwan will drastically change the security order in East Asia, just as the Russian takeover of Ukraine by Russia will disrupt security in Europe. But what has not yet been properly assessed is the prospect of both events happening at the same time - in a more or less coordinated way. Taken together, these two acts of aggression will fundamentally change the global balance of power and herald the demise of the diplomatic and security mechanisms that have held global peace for decades.
And this scenario is by no means as exaggerated as it seems. Although China claims to advocate non-interference in internal affairs, it is strictly silent on the affairs of other countries, on Ukraine's sovereignty. There is no reason to believe that Beijing will not support a new Russian offensive if it is in line with its own goals.
Of course, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan and a Russian invasion of Ukraine would be a huge mistake. The economic development of both countries will suffer from inevitable large-scale sanctions. However, the risk of growing military conflict will be high, and countries such as Japan and India will almost certainly embark on a massive build-up of their own power to oppose China. Europeans are already moving more resolutely towards a policy to strengthen their defense.
With all caution, this is a small consolation. The drums of war are beating harder and harder. The job of diplomacy is to ensure that they remain background noise.
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