Warsaw has threatened the European Union to suspend payments to the pan-European budget. This means that Poland has taken the first step towards leaving the European Union. Polish politicians themselves deny wanting to leave the EU, but their actions show otherwise. And the solution to this conflict largely depends on the new German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, writes the Russian newspaper "Vzglyad" in a material transmitted without editorial intervention.
The Chancellors of the Federal Republic of Germany have a unique tradition, according to which their first state visits are carried out in the following order: Paris (western neighbor), Brussels (capital of the European Union) and Warsaw (eastern neighbor). The new head of the German government, Olaf Scholz, jumped just a day after taking office, although for his last stop - in Poland - there were considerations on both sides of the border that it is better to postpone this visit for now, between the two neighbors too difficult a relationship.
The conceptual conflict with Warsaw is a legacy left to Scholz by Angela Merkel. It would be more accurate to say that this is not so much a conflict between Poland and Germany as between Poland and the EU, but in Poland itself they are sure that Berlin is behind the most unacceptable decisions of Brussels. At least that is the verdict of the Minister of Justice and at the same time of the Chief Prosecutor of Poland Zbigniew Zebro, a key figure in the current conflict.
Zebro is one of the most prominent, famous and scandalous politicians in the ruling Law and Justice Party. A Catholic clergyman and radical conservative, he is in dispute with Brussels over a variety of social issues, from LGBT rights to abortion rights. And it was Zebro who was the author and main lobbyist of the judicial reform that brought to the brink the already complicated Polish-European relations.
Brussels believes that the creation of a disciplinary chamber in Poland, which will be able to remove judges from work at all levels, is an attempt against the independence of the judiciary. In Warsaw, on the other hand, they are firmly convinced that it is the European Union that allows itself to interfere illegally in Poland's sovereign affairs. Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki compared the situation to "a conversation with a pistol in the temple".
At the moment the situation is stalemate.
The Court of Justice of the European Union has imposed a fine that Warsaw must pay by the time it disbands the Disciplinary Chamber - one million euros a day. But the Polish Constitutional Court has allowed the authorities to ignore European Court rulings, emphasizing the primacy of Polish law over European law.
The imposition of a fine does not require the approval of Poles - it can be deducted from those subsidies to equalize living standards and develop priority projects (such as green energy) that Brussels sends to Poland. However, Chief Prosecutor Zebro promises to go all the way and raise the issue in the most unpleasant way for the European Union - to suspend payments from Warsaw to the general EU budget. According to him, the European Union "illegally" denies Poland funds from the "general budget, to which it also contributes"
"Poland must veto EU decisions that require unanimous approval in response to EU blackmail. "Poland also needs to reconsider its commitments to the EU with regard to energy and climate policies, which are leading to a sharp rise in electricity prices," Zebro said.
This threat is important because it was envisaged as part of the scenario for Warsaw's exit from the EU. And the realization of this scenario, thanks to the efforts of Zebro, now runs the risk of accelerating.
The system of inter-budgetary tranches in the European Union is vaguely similar to the distribution of tax revenues in the Russian Federation. All member states contribute to the central treasury "as far as possible" and then receive back "as needed". The richer perform as donors, the poorer are recipients.
Poland is the main recipient to become a donor. From a political point of view, this conservative country is perceived in Brussels as a "sick child of Europe", but from an economic point of view, Poles are excellent students who were more competent than others who managed to realize financial aid from the center, radically updated infrastructure and has stable economic growth of 5% per year compared to 1-2% in developed countries.
This means that Warsaw will soon start paying more than it gets back. Moreover, this day is approaching sharply after the exit from the EU of a large donor in the face of Britain. For those Poles who are more greedy, this in itself raises the question of the rationality of continuing to stay in the 'single European family'. And people like Morawiecki and Zebro are particularly angry that the subsidies coming from Brussels are targeted and do not go at all for the purposes for which the Polish government would like to spend money, such as protecting gay rights or adapting migrants.
The Prime Minister himself categorically rejects the option according to which Poland can officially leave the European Union after Great Britain. But his direct subordinate brought the conflict to that logic of development, when the story aimed at achieving fear begins to become a reality. Either Warsaw, despite its clear reluctance to do so, will accept the fine and receive 365 million euros less a year, or it will follow the Zebro program and stop paying its contributions, which is difficult to interpret in any other way. except as a first step out.
If the second part of the threat materializes - by vetoing all European Union decisions that must be taken collectively, the withdrawal of Warsaw will even be accepted with relief.
Polish media believe that the chances of Morawiecki and Co. succeeding in reaching an agreement with EU commissioners and resolving the conflict are minimal - everything has gone too far. All hopes in this regard are pinned on Scholz as a mediator, but the problem with Scholz is that he is not Merkel, that is, by definition, he is not the man who promotes anti-Polish initiatives in Brussels.
Maybe he will become one later - in full accordance with the point of his election program on the priority of common European rules, and so Merkel's time will seem very free to Poles. But so far he has not addressed the issue and has not touched on the confrontational issue of Polish-European relations at a joint press conference with Morawiecki, highlighting other differences, such as Nord Stream 2.
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