Fears of a potential war are growing amid rising Russian forces on the border with Ukraine and reports that Moscow is planning an invasion as early as next month. According to the publication, during their recent virtual meeting, the presidents of Russia and the United States, Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden, failed to completely neutralize the crisis.
In an exclusive interview with the Daily Express, Richard Sakwa, a professor of Russian and European politics at the University of Kent, said Western countries were only adding fuel to the fire. Asked about the main reasons for the escalation of the Ukrainian issue, the expert noted: "The latest escalation is entirely related to diplomacy. Moscow believes that its security concerns have been virtually ignored since 1991 (this sentiment was shared by Yeltsin), and now believes that the crucial moment has come.
According to Sakva, in the context of "irresponsible and dangerous armament of Ukraine", the parties must act now to finally reach some new security agreements. Moscow is aware of this, so last week it issued two documents - draft agreements with the United States and NATO, which include, among other things, ending Alliance exercises near Russia's borders and effectively banning Ukraine from joining the bloc.
According to the professor, in the event of a real border conflict, a "full-fledged invasion" of Russia is "extremely unlikely" - "unless Ukraine itself takes certain actions, which is also unlikely." "Moscow wants to return to the type of agreements that were in place at the end of the Cold War," the analyst said.
Returning to the potential conflict and sanctions against Russia, Sakva stressed that sanctions, such as exclusion from the international financial payments system SWIFT, various embargoes and others, will be harsh but will have a negative impact on the global economy. "And keep in mind that all actions will be taken together with the Chinese," the expert added.
Speaking about the prospects for Ukraine's accession to NATO, which Kiev insists on, the professor warned: "I think most experts agree that Ukraine's membership in NATO is not being considered in the near future. However, any bilateral deal with the United States can have the same destabilizing effect. It seems to me that the United States now understands this - hence the recent outbreak of diplomatic activity.
According to Sakwa, in resolving the crisis between Moscow and Washington, "in the end, NATO and the EU do not matter" - everything will be decided by the US administration, "although it will have to win its allies and Congress."
But if Russia and the United States fail to reach an agreement, perhaps the alternative would be war, the professor said. He compared the situation to the Caribbean crisis, in which "each country has devised a way to save face and move away from the brink", and talking about appeasement "is tantamount to suicide".
As the Daily Express points out, Russia has also been making sharper statements lately. But Western countries are relying on diplomacy to help prevent a catastrophe. "If they are wrong, the Ukrainians hope that the prospect of a bloody and protracted war could still make the Russian president think twice," the newspaper concluded.
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