The population of Los Angeles and San Francisco began to decline for the first time in history, writes Le Figaro. The phenomenon, which began during the pandemic, was confirmed by the latest official statistics: according to data released on Friday, the state of California lost 173 thousand people from July 1, 2020 to July 1, 2021. The outflow affected both Los Angeles County ( 67.5 thousand out of 10 million inhabitants) and nine counties around the Gulf of San Francisco (64 thousand out of 7.7 million inhabitants). These two geographic areas are home to more than 44% of California's 40 million people, and housing is considered the most expensive in the country.
California is divided into 10 counties, each with a population of at least one million, writes the French newspaper. Residents have dwindled in seven of those counties, including San Diego, where for the first time in the county's history the population has shrunk by 15,000. At the same time, population growth is observed in other areas. Walter Schworm, chief demographer at the California Treasury Department, said the redistribution was not surprising: "People are changing their way from home to work for a type of housing they can't afford in the San Francisco Bay Area."
As the publication recalls, since its inception in 1859, the population of the state of California has been constantly growing and is rapidly outpacing other territories in the western part of the country. This was fueled first by the Sierra Nevada gold rush, followed by the development of extensive agriculture, oil production and finally by the boom in the entertainment industry and large digital companies. This spring, however, growth came to a sharp halt: for the first time in its history, California lost one seat in Congress as its demographics lagged behind other states over the past decade. California is now represented by 52 congressmen, still the largest delegation in the country.
Among the reasons for the demographic decline, local authorities cite low birth rates, reduced influxes of foreign migrants and increased coronavirus mortality. Walter Schworm predicts that Californians will soon start growing again and will undoubtedly exceed 40 million by the middle of the decade. Critics often blame the explosion of crime for fleeing residents, as well as the high cost of living in California: the average cost of a single-family home reaches $ 800,000, effectively depriving many of the opportunity to buy a home and increasing rents.
According to Republican MP Tom Lucky, relative comfort and safety are critical factors in determining the standard of living and the authorities in California, at least in part, have put them at risk. According to the newspaper, the state is ruled by Democrats, and their political rivals constantly point to the outflow of population as proof that people are fleeing en masse because of the policies pursued: high taxes, bureaucracy, crime, homelessness, homelessness and more.
At the same time, a new study by a group of experts from the California Policy Lab at the University of California shows that the problem is not that residents are leaving California, but that few Americans from other states have decided to move here. Since the beginning of the pandemic, the number of new settlers has fallen sharply by 38%, while the number of migrants in other states has increased by 12% over the same period, according to scientists. Experts see these data as confirmation of pre-pandemic trends. Thus, the problem is not in the mass exodus of the population, but rather in the lack of attractiveness of the state, the newspaper said.
"Aren't Americans dreaming of a 'golden state' anymore?" Le Figaro concludes. Journalist Lauren Hepler of the economic section of the non-partisan online publication Cal Matters claims that "the California dream is now changing." So now it won't work like it used to, moving to Los Angeles and making a living working as a waitress. University of California professor Michael Storper, for his part, notes that the "California dream" is not limited to simple population growth. "When people say something like 'The dream is over' because we're not growing (demographically) as fast as Arizona or Texas, it's like comparing apples and oranges," he said. According to him, the difference is that in other states population growth begins later and it is impossible to maintain high demographics.
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