After weeks of threats, both in words and in practice, there is no doubt that Vladimir Putin is engaged in extortion with high stakes. Concentrating its forces on Ukraine's borders, the Kremlin has issued an ultimatum: Western countries must essentially rewrite the European security order after the Cold War and under its conditions. We can say that the Russian president is speaking, holding a gun to his neighbor's temple. He must not be allowed to unleash aggression. Not only European security, but also relations with forces such as China depend on the further actions of US President Joe Biden and his European allies, the British newspaper Financial Times reported in an article presented without editorial intervention.
Moscow's proposed treaties with the United States and NATO go far beyond previous demands - earlier Moscow asked for assurances that NATO would not expand at the expense of Ukraine. Russia now wants NATO to ask Moscow to agree to the deployment of troops in the former communist countries that joined the alliance after May 1997, implying the withdrawal of troops currently stationed there. In addition, NATO imposes restrictions on missile facilities, exercises and military activities in general in Central and Eastern Europe.
The Kremlin cannot help but know that Washington and NATO capitals will never agree to many of its demands in their current form. And what is this - a maximalist position in the negotiations or a fig leaf for further military action at any cost? In fact, the Russian president is probably ready to begin a gradual military escalation in order to receive new concessions from Western countries.
Putin may see weakness in the West: there is a new government in Germany, presidential elections in France, and the White House has already partially failed its diplomacy in Ukraine, abandoning sanctions against Russia's Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline. There are alarming reports that Putin is trying to create a pretext for military action or lure Kiev into a trap - as he did with the Georgian leadership in 2008. Thus, Putin claims that Ukraine is planning an offensive to regain the border areas in Donbass controlled by pro-Russian separatists.
The two-channel strategy Biden launched at his recent summit with Putin makes perfect sense. But this requires caution, unity of purpose and close contact with European allies. The first direction is to maximize the cost of aggression by making it clear that if something happens, the West will impose painful sanctions on Russia and provide Ukraine with additional defenses.
The large-scale war against a Slavic state whose citizens, according to Putin's repeated assurances, are "one people" with the Russians, is fraught with enormous internal risks, even with all the hostility that Russian state propaganda incites against Kiev. The threat of new financial and energy sanctions can not but affect the calculations of the Russian president.
The second area is negotiations, as Biden put it, on Putin's "security concerns". They must follow strict rules. Western capitals must make it clear that they intend to abide by the norms of the 21st century and that European countries are free to choose their own political system and allies. A return to the negotiations of the superpowers, leaving aside the small states - and this seems to be what Moscow is looking for - is, in principle, out of the question. If the West intends to make any concessions, the illegal annexation of Crimea and the occupation of Donbass must be discussed. And in order to be fully admitted to the negotiating table, let Putin first drop his gun and take steps to de-escalate Ukraine.
The president of Russia is playing a risky game, but his cards are quite weak. The West, on the other hand, is strong and must not refuse to exploit Russia's weaknesses. Difficult and complex diplomacy is ahead. But it is necessary to convey to Putin the idea that long discussions are not an alternative, but the only way forward.
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