Russia's "success" in Kazakhstan could worsen Ukraine's position

 

 Russia's "success" in Kazakhstan could worsen Ukraine's position. As a result of the events in Kazakhstan, there will be no "distraction" of the attention of the Russian Federation from Ukraine, writes the Ukrainian edition "Glavred"

Several important conclusions can be drawn about the situation in Kazakhstan.

1. The Kazakh authorities maintained the situation, the Nazarbayev-Tokayev regime did not fall, and we will continue to see the crystallization of a new quasi-autocratic system.

2. The West foolishly ignored the situation and decided not to interfere. They have a commercial interest in Kazakhstan and destabilization would be counterproductive. Consequently, there were no expected demands for human rights, democracy and values. This once again confirms that it is not values ​​and moral attitudes that have a decisive influence on the policies of the world's leading countries.

3. Tokayev removed Nazarbayev under the guise of "gas riots", as in this political transition, started in 2019 by "Elbashi". It was this plot that was decisive in yesterday's events and will be central to the further development of the situation in Kazakhstan. With the abolition of de facto dual power, a redistribution of political influence and financial flows began.

4. The entry of CSTO peacekeepers at Tokayev's request in the short and medium term will strengthen Russia in Central Asia as a guarantor of security. And that will give Moscow additional arguments in negotiating with the West and China. However, if the Russian Federation starts using the CSTO mission to put pressure on the Kazakh authorities on issues unrelated to their mandate (Russian language, culture, demography, economy), then strategically it will turn against them. in an explosion of anti-Russian nationalism that is already growing in Kazakhstan.

 5. There was no "distraction" of the Russian Federation from Ukraine as a result of the events in Kazakhstan. On the contrary: the opportunities for strengthening as a result of the arrival of CSTO troops and the support of the authorities will strengthen the negotiating positions of the Russian Federation in the Ukrainian direction. In other words, the situation in Kazakhstan has not affected Kiev at all and could potentially worsen its position, as Russia cements its image as a "security guarantor" and a player in the regional stabilization process that Putin is in dialogue with Biden.

6. The protests in Kazakhstan are an indicator of a serious "disease" in many countries of the post-covid world. The socio-economic, "hungry" nature of the protests, the lack of a leading figure, the chaos and discontent with the system, turning them into pogroms, robberies, murders and "lumpenized" riots, which have the potential to erupt in many countries around the world. -a common way to protest against the system. They are a desperate desire to improve living conditions for at least a day. Such protests are the most destructive and easily manipulated. The lack of a clear agenda and leaders made it easier for the government to eliminate them by force.