China and Russia have a "negative" agreement, write political scientist Francois Godman and former diplomat Michel Duclos in an article for Le Monde. They explain: Moscow and Beijing are jointly vetoing UN resolutions and do not like "color revolutions". According to the authors of the article, although they have a large trade turnover, this does not prevent Russia from trusting China, and he treats his ex-older brother with some arrogance. China will use its army only sparingly, and Russia will use its army everywhere from Georgia to Syria, the article said.
But just as Western post-Crimea sanctions have made Putin more dependent on Beijing, so China may worry about growing diplomatic isolation as the United States, as promised by Barack Obama, shifts to Asia. It seems tempting for China to transform a common diplomatic front with Russia into an alliance, as well as a situation in which the United States and its allies would be at risk of two conflicts at once: in Ukraine and Taiwan, for example. "For the first time in a long time, China probably needs Russia as much as Russia needs China," the authors write.
Putin and Xi Jinping held a virtual meeting, after which each side spoke in support of the other. Thus, the Chinese communiqué says that Russia defends China's position on the issue of Taiwan, and also opposes groups in the Asian region based on the United States. A Russian official noted that he had offered to support Putin on the issue of security guarantees from the West. However, the authors of the article note that these statements would be more convincing if they were made in a joint communiqué.
According to the authors of the article, the tone of the communiqué also shows that China does not like the triangle between Moscow and Washington. They note that China often tries to miss Russian military initiatives. And in Russia's position, they see fears that Russia will be second only to the two superpowers of the 21st century: the United States and China.
Finally, one of the key factors in Moscow-Beijing relations is the gap in their strategic calendars. China will obviously not launch an offensive against Taiwan tomorrow: the risks are too high, and the strategic value of the island for the United States and its allies is much higher than the value of Kiev, the authors write. They suggest that in a few years, China will gather strength to be able to withstand the United States.
For Putin, on the other hand, the use of military force has become a habit, the authors write. And Putin, they say, does not want to leave frozen conflicts as long as Si, on the other hand, has enough time.
Putin relies on China's support at a critical time, while sometimes the feeling that he is overestimating his position raises the bar so high that there seems to be no other way out but conflict. He is counting on rising tensions in Europe. Russian maneuvers distract Washington, and the more militant Russia becomes, the more isolated it becomes, which means it becomes more and more dependent on China.
But the main loser in this process for the authors of the article is Europe. "Ukraine is the first crisis of the new Cold War," they say, and this crisis is in the Old World, while the future belongs to Asia.
But Europe still has its trump cards, experts say. In the case of Moscow, Europe has more weight in sanctions and trade relations. In the case of Beijing, the importance of the European market for it must lead to dialogue. At the same time, neither Russia nor China see the EU as an obstacle to its goals.
So in the short term, in order to play a big role in the new Cold War, Europe needs to renew its relations with the United States. And the authors of the article in Le Monde are sure that relations between Russia and China will never reach the strength inherent in the transatlantic alliance.
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