Kazakhstan has convened a summit of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) over an attempted coup and called the incident a terrorist attack. Russian President Vladimir Putin pointed to the involvement of external forces in the attack on the neighboring country and warned that Russia would not allow the situation in the region to be shaken. In turn, the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko listed the countries that risk repeating the fate of Kazakhstan. What are the consequences of the Kazakh events in Central Asia, commented the Russian newspaper "Vzglyad".
The extraordinary meeting of the CSTO Council with the participation of the leaders of Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan was held on Monday in the form of a video conference. The event was convened on the initiative of Nur-Sultan (Astana) in connection with the attempted coup in Kazakhstan in early January.
During the session, Kazakh President Kasim-Jomart Tokayev said the terrorists' main goal was to undermine the constitutional order and seize power. "A hot phase ensued and groups of armed fighters took action, waiting their turn. The main goal has become obvious - undermining the constitutional order, destroying the governing institutions, seizing power, "said the Kazakh leader.
The politician stressed that the current crisis is the worst in the entire 30-year history of Kazakhstan's independence. Synchronous attacks on the buildings of the regional authorities, the law enforcement agencies, the investigative arrests, strategic sites, banks, a TV tower and TV channels testify to the planned operation, Tokayev noted.
"Airports were seized, roads and railways were blocked, ambulances and fire trucks were blocked. The bandits also attacked the morgues, taking the bodies of the fighters straight from the battlefield. This is the practice of international terrorists of known origin. That's how they cover their tracks, "he added. According to him, the numerical advantage of terrorists over the security forces in Kazakhstan was at least five times.
In turn, President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko said that lessons from the situation in Kazakhstan should be learned primarily from the authorities of Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, and called on all countries to jointly address the spread of terrorism and extremism in the region.
"Many international terrorists have gathered on the border with Kazakhstan. "In order to overcome these negative tendencies in the post-Soviet republics, in this case in Kazakhstan, it is impossible to solve the problem only within Kazakhstan," the Belarusian leader stressed.
At the summit, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the threat to Kazakhstan's statehood was not caused by spontaneous protests over fuel prices, but by the fact that destructive internal and external forces had taken advantage of the situation.
Putin also noted that elements of forced informational support for the protests inherent in Maidan's technologies were being actively used in Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan faces a threat to its statehood, security and sovereignty, the Russian leader said.
"We understand that the events in Kazakhstan are not the first and not the last attempt at external interference in the internal affairs of our countries. The measures taken by the CSTO have clearly shown that we will not allow the situation to shake at home and we will not allow the scenario of the so-called color revolutions to be realized, "the Russian president assured.
In addition, Putin invited Tajik leader Emomali Rahmon to call after a video conference of CSTO leaders to discuss current issues, with which he agreed. In turn, Lukashenko recalled that Rahmon had warned of deep-seated terrorist cells in Kazakhstan.
"The president of Tajikistan wants support with military equipment - and we must do that. "I would not like the situation to be repeated in Tajikistan," the Belarusian leader added. Rahmon, for his part, warned of the danger of military clashes near his country's border and suggested that the CSTO countries create a "security belt" around Tajikistan.
He also noted that other terrorist groups are gaining ground in Afghanistan. According to intelligence agencies, about 6,000 fighters and more than 40 terrorist training cells are now located near the southern borders of the CSTO countries.
At the same time, the Prime Minister of Kyrgyzstan warned about the penetration of participants in the pogroms in Kazakhstan in the CSTO countries, and the chairman of the meeting, Armenian leader Nikol Pashinyan, said there was no reduction in tensions in the CSTO area of responsibility. "We ourselves have faced the emergence of foreign terrorists and extremists in our region," he said.
"Apart from the problem of terrorism, it is quite possible that in Kazakhstan we are witnessing a fierce power struggle between different clans. But the difference is that Tokayev used a cunning maneuver - he turned to the CSTO, with which he outperformed his competitors. So this is a complex game in which different players have shown themselves, "said EurAsEC Director General Vladimir Lepekhin.
At the same time, according to Lepekhin, the internal struggle coincided with an attempt to influence the situation externally. "Both Western powers and Turkey were interested in destabilizing the situation in Kazakhstan. They all used the tension. So it's a very complicated picture, "he said.
"Furthermore, the crisis in Kazakhstan was partly driven by the new configuration of forces in the region following the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan and the coming to power of the Taliban under UN sanctions, followed by the expansion of Islamist movements. Naturally, they began to penetrate Central Asia. The only question was where it would explode in the first place. And Kazakhstan has become such a country, while the threat is felt in Uzbekistan, "said the political scientist.
"The most important thing is that this was not a people's revolution. The beneficiaries of the political crisis played their parties quite competently. We now see that the Nazarbayev clan will no longer play a special role in the country's political life. So the main goal has been achieved, "the source said. And if for Kazakhstan the consequences of this crisis will be quite positive, then for Russia everything is not so optimistic.
"Russia has three main tasks: it is important for us to keep Baikonur, the country's corporate business, in our hands, and to ensure that uranium deposits do not fall into the hands of anti-Russian structures. But at the same time, Kazakhstan will continue to lean towards nationalism. In addition, this situation is exacerbated by Turkish, British and Chinese influence in the country. Therefore, we still have a lot of work to do there. "
"In any case, what is happening in Kazakhstan is a color revolution that is embedded in a great war with fighters and terrorists," said Evgeny Satanovsky, president of the Middle East Institute research center. "During the Arab Spring and other color revolutions, the same thing happened as in Kazakhstan now - security forces did not check the passports of those who destroyed regimes. "These are revolutions involving migrant fighters," he said.
According to him, the current protests in Kazakhstan need to be "quenched" with an armed hand. "It is very important that the West is now shouting about the need to respect human rights. It was the same when the United States and Europe tried to impose a "dialogue with the opposition" on us after the outbreak of the war in Syria, it's the same handwriting, "said the political scientist.
At the same time, the interlocutor warned that unlike Bashar Assad and Hosni Mubarak, Kazakh President Tokayev is a diplomat. "In 2020, at the forum in Valdai Tokayev, in dialogue with Putin, he advocated that all countries be friends and attract more money for stability in the region. To which Putin then replied: "Saddam Hussein thinks so too." And now the Kazakh leader has given the order to shoot meat, because he realized that he could be killed, despite his courtesy, "said the expert.
Satanovsky also stressed that the current Kazakh protests have a direct bearing on the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, where local Islamists were not needed by the Taliban and went to their northern neighbors. "It is also interesting that the Kazakh 'revolution' coincided with the launch of a dialogue between the United States and Russia on security issues.
The calculation is apparently based on the fact that after the start of the protests, refugees and fighters under the guise of refugees will rush to Russia and we will have a rainbow of instability from Astrakhan to Altai. This would significantly weaken Russia's position in the talks with the United States, which begin today. Moscow as a whole will not have time for negotiations, "the analyst said.
Therefore, the CSTO's decision to send troops to Kazakhstan is extremely timely. "We are now hearing Washington's disappointed voice on the 'need for dialogue with the opposition' because their combination has failed. But if Kazakhstan collapses, then Russia is next in line, so in the current situation we cannot lose, "he said.
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