The situation in Kazakhstan has deteriorated sharply and seriously. Time is short. To get the most accurate idea of the scale of this escalation and the possible outcome, many things need to be considered. But let's talk about everything in order, but quickly, because the situation changes every hour, writes the Croatian analytical publication Advance in a material presented without editorial intervention.
What exactly happened there and why? According to the main version, gas prices rose sharply, twice, followed by riots that soon engulfed the largest city of Almaty, and President Tokayev dismissed the government in panic and called on the CSTO military bloc led by Russia to intervene. to "stabilize" the situation. Of course, this basic version tells us very little about the real reasons that led to such a powerful explosion of unrest in Kazakhstan. That is why a brief historical background is needed.
Kazakhstan is an extremely geostrategic country, bordering two world powers: Russia and China. Kazakhstan is one of the former Soviet republics, which today borders three other former Soviet republics in the south: Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.
Kazakhstan has a huge territory. It is one of the largest landlocked countries in the world. It is also the largest and northernmost Muslim country in the world. Its population is relatively small compared to the area: only 18.8 million people live in the seemingly endless expanses of Kazakhstan, which means that Kazakhstan is one of the most uninhabited countries in the world (less than six people per square kilometer). For example, Kazakhstan's much smaller southern neighbor, Uzbekistan, has almost twice as many citizens (about 35 million).
In the past, the territory of modern Kazakhstan was inhabited by nomadic tribes. At times, these lands were part of large empires. From the south, the ancient Persian Empire expanded, and then Turkish nomads appeared in the region. In the 13th century, the lands came under the rule of the Mongols, who created their own empire, led by Genghis Khan. In the 16th century a special group gradually appeared - the Kazakhs. Today, this Turkic people live, except in Kazakhstan, mainly in China (its western suburbs - Xinjiang), where there are about 1.8 million, as well as in Uzbekistan (925 thousand), Russia (650 thousand), etc. .
In the 18th century, the Russians invaded the steppes of Kazakhstan, and since the mid-19th century, its entire territory has been controlled by the Russian Empire. After the Bolshevik revolution, Kazakhstan became part of the Soviet Union (officially became a socialist republic in 1936). Interesting detail: Kazakhstan was the last republic to declare independence after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.
It is the path that Kazakhstan has taken since the collapse of the Soviet Union that explains many important things that make it possible to understand the current chaos. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Kazakhstan, like all other post-Soviet republics in Central Asia, was expected to transform into an authoritarian state where freedoms such as freedom of choice, speech, and others exist only on paper. But on the other hand, another freedom was formed - the freedom of the market. Of course, foreign companies were extremely interested in entering the market of Kazakhstan, as in terms of energy it is one of the most important countries in the world!
Today, Kazakhstan is one of the dominant countries in Central Asia and provides about 60 percent of the region's GDP thanks to the large amount of oil and gas it has. In addition, Kazakhstan has large reserves of minerals, one of the most important of which is uranium. This information is extremely important today, as countries around the world are moving away from fossil fuels in favor of other forms of energy. In such a world, uranium will undoubtedly play an extremely important role.
Let's look at the numbers. We have data from 2018. Then Kazakhstan extracted 21,705 tons of uranium. Far behind it is Canada with 7001 tons, then Australia with 6517 tons and so on. In other words, Kazakhstan plays a key role in uranium supply, and if something happens in this country, say, a long period of instability begins, the consequences will inevitably be felt by the whole world.
With such wealth at Kazakhstan's disposal and a relatively small population, it can become one of the richest, happiest and most promising countries in the world. He could, but he didn't, and it's not hard to guess why. We have before us an example of a rich country in which all wealth is sucked out by an extremely rich elite, and people are kept for many years in a state "enough not to die" and now, due to catastrophically wrong calculations, the authorities have made a cardinal mistake. She took from the people the little one that still held the lid of the boiling cauldron.
As former British Ambassador and Foreign Affairs Observer George Galloway rightly pointed out, Kazakhstan's sovereign wealth fund is so huge that it can provide its citizens, without exception, with completely free fuel and without even having to talk about preferential prices.
Most people in Kazakhstan use propane-butane (liquefied petroleum gas) vehicles. Its prices were fixed. This sector remains one of the last bastions not yet left on the open market. It is clear that, as a result, producers cannot make large profits and, of course, are putting pressure on the authorities to remove the restrictions. This was done a few days ago: on January 1, 2022, as a "New Year's gift", the citizens of Kazakhstan received a double increase in the price of LPG, and many realized that this was the last straw.
The gin escaped from the bottle and it is unlikely that even all CSTO troops will be able to bring it back. This is the epilogue of one of the post-Soviet stories of contempt for the people by the elite, which is even more unceremonious than the typical post-Soviet oligarchy. Until 2019, Kazakhstan had only one president - the extremely influential and strong Nursultan Nazarbayev. In 2019, the untouchable Nazarbayev handed over power to an elected loyalist, current President Tokayev. But Nazarbayev did not go far: he retained the position of chairman of Kazakhstan's Security Council. And so, sitting in the shadows, he continued to rule the country. Subsequently, by his order, the capital of Kazakhstan was renamed: Astana became Nur-Sultan.
The question is where is Nazarbayev now, who has remained untouchable for so long. Tokayev, who replaced the entire government, also replaced Nazarbayev, officially taking over as chairman of the Security Council. According to some sources, Nazarbayev has already fled the country, but this information has not been confirmed. At least at the time of writing.
In fact, what we see in Kazakhstan today is very similar to Belarus in political and chronological terms, although the situation in Kazakhstan can be (and is) much more explosive. Like Nazarbayev, Lukashenko has ruled (and continues to rule) in Belarus since the collapse of the Soviet Union. At one point, he began to break out of Russian influence and became closer to the United States. Immediately afterwards, some important social measures were canceled, such as housing rents in Belarus, and then unrest broke out, which, among other things, could have been partially provoked from outside. Soon Lukashenko returned in panic under the wing of Russia.
We see the same in the case of Kazakhstan. It is no secret that Nazarbayev, like Lukashenko, tried to break away from Russian influence and at one point took a very critical stance towards Putin. No one in post-Soviet Central Asia dared to do so. At the same time, he strengthened relations with the United States, and it is the American multinational company Chevron that is today the largest private oil producer in Kazakhstan (a business worth tens of billions of dollars).
Kazakhstan has become a country of extraordinary contrasts. On the one hand, there are such brilliant cities as Almaty, which was the capital until 1997, and Nur-Sultan (former Astana), and on the other, poor and undeveloped settlements, where people are getting poorer day by day, unemployment is rising and problems of various kinds are multiplying .... Yes, it cannot be said that in Kazakhstan the contrasts have reached their maximum, as in some African countries, but for a mass uprising the arrogance and corruption of the ruling elite proved to be more than enough.
Of course, this crisis is not developing in a vacuum and has already grown into a regional one, as it was decided to send CSTO forces to Kazakhstan. In a broader context, this is a serious challenge for Russia, as escalating tensions in Kazakhstan have arrived "on order" amid the conflict over Ukraine. Or maybe this event is not really accidental? Probably not, only if the Kazakh authorities do not have self-destructive tendencies. Such unrest could soon lead to a change of regime.
Yes, Kazakhstan is a predominantly Muslim country (about 72 percent of the population is Muslim), but Kazakhstan is also a very secular country, like all other post-Soviet Muslim countries. It is true that this does not mean that radicalization is impossible on the territory of Kazakhstan. In addition, the current crisis is the "best time" for this. This scenario raises many concerns in Russia and China.
Kazakh President Tokayev claims that "well-trained foreign terrorists are operating in the crowd of protesters". It is clear that such a statement could have been expected of him, as he needs such arguments to turn to the CSTO to save himself and the ruling elite in the country. Or maybe Chevron's oil fields? Is the external factor already active? Hard to say. The current crisis has just begun, but it is hard to imagine that external forces would not even try to take advantage of it, because it is an ideal opportunity to disperse the efforts of Russia, which in the last few months has focused entirely on Ukraine. border. All this could be the beginning of something bigger - the long-awaited spread of unrest in Central Asia, which has remained calm for many years.
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