Russian President Vladimir Putin has created a crisis in Ukraine that leaves the West with only bad choices. So far we have avoided the worst, but the British government cannot afford to turn a blind eye to events on Europe's eastern border, writes Robert Jenrick, a Conservative MP in the British Parliament and former Minister of Housing on the pages of The Daily Telegraph in a material presented without editorial intervention and on behalf of the author.
Putin has mobilized an army on an unprecedented scale: 75% of all battalion tactical groups in Russia are now concentrated on Ukraine's borders. His ultimatum to NATO is a frivolous diplomatic effort to provoke Western refusal and fuel the Kremlin's coordinated disinformation campaign, which is that NATO is somehow on the offensive
From Putin's point of view, he has an incentive to act now. The United States is focused on China, so military support for Ukraine seems unlikely. At the same time, much of Europe is now heavily dependent on Russian gas - as a result of decades of ill-conceived energy policies - so it cannot afford to impose sanctions that would be most painful for Russia.
I do not want to say that the invasion will necessarily happen. All of this could be a deliberate bluff to win concessions from NATO. Ultimately, any invasion would do significant damage to Putin's goals. In addition to the bloody, costly and protracted conflict that will erupt in Ukraine, this will undoubtedly encourage NATO to strengthen its presence in Eastern Europe, countries that Putin considers to be Russia's legitimate possession.
In planning the next move, Putin will, of course, consider the rather vague "large-scale consequences" that the G7 has promised him in the event of an invasion. Putin is skeptical of such rhetoric. This will require real determination - not just words, but deeds.
But the truth is that such a united position is impossible in a divided Europe. So far, Britain has been Ukraine's most loyal European partner. We have deepened our economic partnership and provided military training to 21,000 Ukrainian soldiers through Operation Orbital.
To limit Russia, we must persuade our more skeptical European friends to collectively take a series of difficult and concrete measures if Putin escalates the situation. Skripal's coordinated response to the poisoning shows how effective Britain can be as a unifying force. A set of harsh sanctions that could cause serious economic damage to the Russian economy, made clear, along with the sale of Ukraine's defense weapons - hitherto blocked by Germany - must act as the two pillars on which every anti-Russian package must rely.
Berlin must be at the heart of our diplomatic efforts. The change in the German government makes it possible to abandon the catastrophic energy policy, which has contributed to the deterioration of Ukraine's security. Nord Stream 2 put an end to Ukraine's status as a transit country (and facilitated its invasion), enriched the Kremlin and, by making Europe dependent on Russian energy, limited our ability to act. Preventing the launch of Nord Stream 2 is the biggest step Europe can take to strengthen its - and our - collective security. German Foreign Minister Analena Burbock and Economy Minister Robert Habeck are two influential people in the coalition who share Britain's views. And we need to convince the more skeptical new German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz.
As we return to the turbulent 2021, it is clear that the events in Afghanistan will be one of those defining moments that future generations will remember. A time when Western determination was tested and found to be sorely lacking. Russia, China, Iran and our other opponents have seen the United States and its allies stagger. Let this serve as a sobering reminder of how quickly the situation can worsen and the tragic consequences that can arise if we do not focus on our goals. If we want to pursue the positive and proactive foreign policy that underpins global Britain, we must be able to deal with domestic and international crises at the same time.
This is a test of our will and ability to work with our allies. And we will soon see if we have done the job.
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