The unrest in Kazakhstan heralds the bitter end of a 30-year era in which the former Soviet republic, despite periodic riots, was known as a model of authoritarian stability. Former President Nursultan Nazarbayev has stifled any demand for democratic freedoms by pushing for liberal economic reforms - foreign investment has flowed like a river and living standards have risen steadily, according to the Financial Times.
Now facing the biggest protests in recent years, his successor, Kasim-Jomart Tokayev, has fired the government and removed Nazarbayev from his post as head of the Security Council. Authorities say the peak of the violence has killed dozens of protesters and at least 12 police officers. The Russian-led military alliance has already sent paratroopers disguised as "peacekeepers."
One lesson for both democracies and despotic regimes is how politically explosive it is to raise energy prices even in a resource-rich country like Kazakhstan. The protests, initially peaceful, erupted over rising prices for liquefied natural gas, which is commonly used to charge cars in the western part of the country. But they quickly escalated into an outbreak of violence over accumulated dissatisfaction with corruption, a lack of political choice and the dominance of 81-year-old Nazarbayev's relatives and allies in high political and industrial positions.
Without clear leaders and specific demands, and overshadowed by a wave of looting (judging by the presence of criminals or provocateurs among the demonstrators), the protests are unlikely to gain critical mass to turn into a revolution. But Tokayev was so skeptical that his own security forces would crush them that he invited the Moscow-based Collective Security Treaty Organization to restore order. For the first time in its 20-year history, this regional organization is involved in joint, supposedly "anti-terrorist" operations.
Moscow had reason to respond to his request. Along with Belarus and Russia, Kazakhstan is one of the founders of the Eurasian Economic Union. Vladimir Putin saw it as a kind of anti-EU and urged the former Soviet republics to join. All three countries are ruled by aging autocrats. Russia has already backed Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko after mass protests in 2020. Now it is doing the same in Kazakhstan, where Nazarbayev's decision to step down but remain a lifelong "Leader of the Nation" is seen by many as a further scenario for Putin himself.
Russian intervention will prevent a new, unfriendly government in Moscow's sphere of influence - unlike the revolutions in Ukraine in 2014 and Georgia in 2003. But if the Tokayev regime endures, repression against the opposition will continue, as it did in Belarus. . Dissatisfaction will only be banished underground, where it will continue to smolder.
Kremlin analysts speculate that the CSTO's intervention is aimed at preventing civil conflict - after the protesters acquired weapons. But this will lead to even greater popular discontent and the country's leadership will be in debt to Russia - as Minsk has already shown. In addition, the situation in Kazakhstan is being closely monitored by China and Turkey, rivals in the struggle for influence and natural resources.
Finally, unrest in Central Asia is creating an awkward backdrop for talks with the United States and NATO next week following the build-up of Russian troops around Ukraine. On the eve of the talks, Putin will probably unreasonably see the West's hand in this. And Kremlin delegates will certainly try to comply with the president's demands and "limit" NATO. Looking at the fate of Nazarbayev, whose actions he inspired, Putin will probably want diplomatic rather than military success, even more so to "sell" him to his audience.
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