In 2022, Russia and China will enter with very similar geopolitical problems. Both countries are under strong American pressure and both have territories that the United States is trying to use or is already using against them. In the case of Russia, this is Ukraine, and in the case of China, Taiwan. It is difficult to imagine that Chinese and Russian leaders in direct communication would not pay attention to the similarity of their positions, which means that there is reason to expect that the solution to their problems will be somewhat coordinated, writes the Croatian analytical publication Advance in material presented without editorial intervention.
Russia opposes NATO, while the Alliance clearly wants to continue its enlargement and is approaching its borders, penetrating the most dangerous zone - Ukraine. NATO's goal is understandable only because none of the representatives of this military bloc said anything bad in response to Ukraine's call for Ukraine's accession to the Alliance as soon as possible. In addition, all that is heard from NATO is the rejection of Russia's so-called "security guarantees" and the words that each country has the right to decide for itself which military bloc to belong to.
There is no NATO in Asia (yet), but the United States is forming similar coalitions there, such as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) and AUKUS (an alliance between the United States, Britain and Australia). In principle, the strategy is the same: first a security bloc is created, then its military objectives are expanded and China is surrounded. In this sense, Taiwan plays an extremely important role, as the United States has supported it for years, including by military-political means, although de jure not linked to Taiwan through diplomatic relations, ie the "one China" policy officially continues, within which Taiwan is part of China.
But in practical terms, especially if you look at the situation through the prism of America's extremely ambitious strategy to encircle the two geopolitical rivals, Taiwan is Chinese Ukraine and Ukraine is Russian Taiwan.
At the same time, a very similar vision is being formed among American allies in both Europe and the Indo-Pacific region. Of course, the "opinions" of American allies are always subject to the decisive influence of the United States, so the similarity of their positions in different parts of the world is not surprising. What is this opinion? It is a matter of the conviction that Russia / China must no longer be allowed to behave aggressively and that a (red) line must be drawn and that the independence and democracy of Ukraine / Taiwan must be defended by all means.
We are entering the new year with very similar expectations in these two different parts of the world. Russia is rumored to be preparing to invade Ukraine soon, and has already deployed about 100,000 troops near the Ukrainian border. China is said to be actively working on a plan to invade Taiwan, so more and more Chinese warplanes are invading Taiwan's air defense zone to test and "exhaust" Taiwan's defense.
Whether this is true or not (or only partially - at one end of the world), the fact is that China and Russia are in a very similar situation and this brings them even closer. Both countries are presented as dangerous aggressors who must be under strong pressure to thwart their plans (so far only in political, diplomatic and economic terms). Regarding the plans, both Moscow and Beijing are familiar with the content of publicly available documents on NATO's 2030 strategy. It says in black and white that Russia and China are "threats", and now there is more emphasis on China. In addition, we are hearing more and more about the expansion of US security initiatives in the Asia-Pacific region.
At the same time, Russia, despite concentrating its military forces on the Ukrainian border, is fighting NATO enlargement on US initiative, as well as a direct US military presence in Eastern Europe. That's why Russian President Vladimir Putin has sent Russian demands for "security guarantees" to the United States and NATO, but the big question is whether at least one of them will be met, including the main one - to stop NATO's expansion to Russia.
Therefore, another interesting question arises. If Russia and China coordinate their actions in response to what is happening, is it possible for both countries to invade those territories at the same time where they see a growing danger to themselves? It is hard to imagine that their military strategists would not have thought of this option at least once. Double blow - one in different parts of the world and then, perhaps, the United States simply will not be able to respond at once.
Even more important is the issue of the very near future. Will Russia and China, in their opposition to the United States, confine themselves to political cooperation, or will they expand their interaction and then develop into a powerful Russian-Chinese military axis that would probably not be in the United States and its allies?
So far, Russia and China have not commented aloud on each other's problems. Russia refused to comment on the situation in Taiwan, the South China Sea and Hong Kong, while China deliberately did not talk about Donbass, the situation in the Syrian province of Idlib, the Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline ...
This has been the case so far, but times are changing and in 2022 everything can change forever. Russia and China will certainly not enter into open confrontation with the United States and its key allies, but they also need to stop further escalating American pressure on themselves.
It is quite clear to Beijing and Moscow that most of the time the United States is pressuring them, relying on its allies and partners from organizations such as NATO, and now QUAD and AUKUS in Asia. In fact, Washington rarely makes a political statement without hiding behind phrases like "together with our allies and partners."
One can imagine how more impressive, for example, Russia's current demands on the United States and NATO would look if China were behind them, or if Russia had openly sided with China over tensions in the South China Sea.
This topic has been written about before, and it is still unclear why such an alliance between Russia and China has not yet taken place. But the situation is changing all the time and we will probably see changes at the beginning of this year. We will receive some important answers to these questions after the talks between Russian and American representatives on the current crisis in Eastern Europe.
Further intensification of American pressure on Beijing and Moscow will further smooth out the differences that, of course, exist between these countries. It may very soon be that Russia and China will have no choice but to get closer, forming something more specific than their current friendship, because what unites them today is not taken seriously by the United States and they are pressuring them. in different parts of the world.
Of course, as soon as such an alliance emerges, there will be hysterical headlines for the "end of the free world" the very next day. In fact, the unification of forces in the East could lead to major global changes, including a change in the dominant global regime that is still dictated by the United States. Of course, in such a scenario, the most dangerous question will arise: will these changes be peaceful, or will there be a great war? However, you should not dive into such apocalyptic scenarios, as there is simply no need for a total "change of world regime". The fact is that both Russia and China support the idea of a multipolar world and do not seek an order dominated by a single power. Now the United States just needs to be convinced that this is the only sensible way out.
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