Europe is entering an important week of diplomacy, as the fate of Ukraine, surrounded by 100,000 Russian troops, hangs in the balance, writes the British newspaper The Guardian.
Top US and Russian diplomats will meet in Geneva on Sunday and Monday to discuss Moscow's demands, set out last month in two draft treaties, one with the United States and one with NATO. Much of their content is unacceptable to Washington and the Alliance, including the most important demand that Ukraine never join NATO.
The Biden administration insists that the right of sovereign states to apply for NATO membership is not negotiable, nor is the deployment of US troops in Europe, administration officials said on the eve of the talks. However, they said Washington would discuss other security guarantees, such as reciprocal restrictions on missile deployments on the continent. This is far from the comprehensive changes that Moscow is demanding.
Few, if any, diplomatic observers expect a quick agreement to resolve the crisis this week, but the opposite - a complete collapse - is possible. It must soon become clear whether Russia is interested in negotiations on its proposals or whether they are intended to be rejected, creating a pretext for a war that Vladimir Putin has already decided.
"Lower your expectations and then lower them further," said Melinda Haring, deputy director of the Eurasian Center at the Atlantic Council. "Be careful with Moscow's demands during the meetings. If Russia insists that NATO can never expand again, we will know that Moscow is preparing for war in Ukraine, as this is a red line for the West.
The two countries in Geneva will be led by veteran negotiators, US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman and Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, accompanied by senior officials from the relevant Ministries of Defense and Foreign Affairs. Negotiations are set to begin on Monday, but officials said there would be an informal meeting between the two delegations on Sunday night.
U.S. officials insist Sherman and her team will discuss only the bilateral elements of Russia's proposals, not everything in which other countries have a sovereign stake. The mantra to the capitals of Kiev and NATO is: "Nothing for you without you."
Negotiating teams will move to Brussels on Wednesday for a NATO-Russia Council session attended by all 30 members of the Alliance. This will be the first such meeting since 2019 of the Council, which was established in 2002 to defuse tensions and build consensus.
The next day, Vienna will host a meeting of the Permanent Council of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), chaired by Poland. Representatives will be at a lower ambassadorial level than the NATO session the day before. However, this meeting will be particularly important because it will include European non-NATO countries such as Finland and Sweden, which are considering their future in light of Russia's pressure on Ukraine. In particular, Finnish leaders have made it clear over the past few days that they may look again at NATO membership.
"We believe that after bilateral talks with the United States and then in the form of NATO, some developments are possible in this wider forum," said Nicodemus Rahon, spokesman for the Polish embassy in Warsaw.
Washington says the US-Russia meeting in Geneva will be primarily an opportunity to present positions, not resolve them.
"On Monday, we will hear Russia explain its proposals and the main concerns that motivate them. We will respond and share our own concerns, "said a senior official. "We hope that this will lead to the identification of several bilateral issues where there is enough common ground to continue the discussions."
It is not clear whether Sherman or Ryabkov are authorized to put new ideas on the table. "They will talk about Russia's position, they will talk about stability," said a European diplomat briefed on US preparations. "They will talk about Russia's demands and explain why they are not acceptable, and they will raise some of our questions about European stability and Russia's actions.
Sherman is also expected to list possible "costs" for Russia if he continues to take military action in Ukraine, including broad financial sanctions, a possible withdrawal from the international electronic payment system Swift and restrictions on the ability of its citizens to buy Western technology.
According to The New York Times, the chairman of the joint committee of US Chief of Staff General Mark Millie also warned his Russian counterpart, General Valery Gerasimov, that the invasion would face a long revolt backed by modern American weapons. US officials declined to comment on reports that Stinger anti-aircraft missiles had been sent to Ukraine in anticipation of such a guerrilla war.
"Diplomacy this week is crucial. It has become clear from the moment that the West will not say a resounding "no" to Moscow's proposal because too much is at stake. The question was how far Washington and the Europeans are ready to go with the talks, "said Andrei Baklitsky, a senior fellow at the Moscow State Institute of International Affairs.
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