Given the growing tensions between the United States and Russia over tens of thousands of Russian troops grouped along Ukraine's border, President Biden's recent telephone conversations with Russian President Vladimir Putin and the announcement of Russian-US talks in Geneva on January 10 are reasonable. and long-awaited action, writes Katrina van den Hovel, publisher and editor-in-chief of Nation magazine, vice president of the US-Russia Consensus Committee on The Washington Post, in an editorial.
But relieving the tension will not be easy. Putin has forced the United States to negotiate military aid near Ukraine's borders and publicly demanded certain guarantees: that Ukraine will not join NATO, that NATO will no longer expand eastward, that the United States will not have missiles near Russia. borders that NATO will reduce its military presence in Eastern and Central Europe. The Biden administration immediately rejected these red lines.
But instead of demanding de-escalation before the parties make any progress in the negotiations, imagine what the situation would be like if Biden took the first steps towards negotiations between the two sides. What might a sensible policy of the United States look like?
It will be necessary to begin with a serious review of the United States' own security concerns - and which of these concerns are a priority in "middle-class foreign policy". Undoubtedly, the global pandemic, which has already claimed the lives of 824,000 Americans and continues, will rank first on this list. Addressing this challenge requires enormous efforts from both the United States and the world - efforts to provide vaccines and public health systems that can effectively test, treat and track those infected and those in contact with them.
The next point will be the existential threat of catastrophic climate change, which is already costing billions of dollars and killing many people as a result of extreme weather events. This will require not only the development of a new green course in the United States, but also engagement with other countries - in particular China and India - to accelerate the transition to clean energy.
In addition, there are many internal problems that need to be addressed: the increase in the number of 'deaths in despair', the reduction in life expectancy, the huge inequalities, inter-racial tensions, the fact that democracy is under siege. To solve these problems, it is necessary to abandon the adventures abroad - that is, to avoid the resumption of the "eternal" military campaign in Afghanistan and to stop the bombing in order to eliminate specific people.
In this context, Biden will have to seriously reconsider his attitude towards Russia and Ukraine.
The United States has no significant national security interests in Ukraine. The civil war gradually acquired an international character and grew into a geopolitical struggle. The Ukrainian people are divided, and millions of Ukrainians speak Russian and face east. The poverty rate in this country is over 50%. The United States must not waste the money and energy needed to rebuild Ukraine from within.
In 1998, respected diplomat George Kennan correctly predicted that Russia would "react hostilely enough" if NATO expanded eastward. "I consider this a tragic mistake," he said. "This expansion will make the founding fathers of our country turn to their graves. We have promised to protect a number of countries, although we have neither the resources nor the will to do so. "Since then, the NATO Alliance has accepted 11 countries that were either former Soviet republics or part of the Warsaw Pact. surprisingly, NATO enlargement brought Russia and China closer together, a strategic fiasco that the United States should not have allowed.
If Biden had analyzed the situation earlier, he would probably have decided to reduce tensions with Russia so that he could focus on resolving the real problems with America's security. And extending the START III contract would be only the first step.
Instead of increasing military aid to Ukraine and irresponsible talks that Ukraine would eventually become a member of NATO, Biden could have called for joint guarantees of Ukraine's independence and neutrality. The United States and NATO could agree not to deploy troops and weapons in the former Soviet republics, and Russia can guarantee that it will not threaten those countries militarily. Both sides could promise not to interfere in the domestic politics of smaller countries.
As NATO has already swallowed up many of the former Soviet republics - all the way to Russia's borders - it will be too difficult for political reasons to go back. But even at this later stage, Ukraine's declaration of independence and neutrality under an international agreement - possibly under the auspices of the UN Security Council or the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe - will help reduce tensions and make a permanent ceasefire.
Biden has already come under fire from two-party hawks for agreeing to the talks at all. But despite this belligerent chatter, America's true security interests are clear. And Ukraine is not among them. Even if Ukraine were a member of NATO, no American president would agree to go to war with Russia to protect it. Paradoxically, NATO now exists in many ways to manage the risks posed by the very existence of this alliance. The United States is extremely interested in easing tensions in its relations with Russia and preserving the independence of the countries located on its borders. This may not be the most popular view in national security today, but it is undoubtedly more reasonable than popular opinion, which urges the United States to engage in a bloody conflict near Russia's borders.
No comments:
Post a Comment