Most polls predict a contested fight in Hungary's fateful parliamentary elections in four months

 

 Most opinion polls show that the fight between Viktor Orbán and the united opposition in Hungary's fateful parliamentary elections in the spring will be highly contested, Hungary Today reports.

However, institutions close to Prime Minister Victor Orban have reported a growing and undisputed advantage for the ruling alliance. The chances of both the far-right Mi Khazank (Our Homeland) and the satirical Two-Tailed Dogs (MKKP) party to cross the parliamentary threshold are still alive. Approximately four months before the election, here is a review of the latest findings of sociologists.

 Republikon and Publicus: the opposition union leads

In late December, the Republikon (led by former SZDSZ liberal politician Gabor Horn) found that the opposition alliance was clearly at the top. The advantage of the six-party coalition is 3% among the eligible population (33% vs. 36%) and 5% among regular voters (43% vs. 48%).

Similarly, the left-wing Publicus gives the opposition an advantage, with 36% versus only 32% of the total voting population. However, the think tank admits that the opposition lost several percentage points after the peak measured during and shortly after the primary elections.

 Other liberal institutions: the two main blocs are equal

The left-liberal Zavech found that Fidesz and the opposition alliance were equal: both would gather 37% of the total electorate. The same goes for the comparison made among the deciding voters: both main parties have 47%, while Mi Hazank has 3% and MKKP 2% in this respect.

The Liberal IDEA also found that although the opposition had lost momentum by the end of the year, they still had reason to remain optimistic. Within the general electorate, the opposition and the ruling alliance are equal (38-38%), while Fidesz leads with 1% among hard voters. Mi Hazank has 3% in both aspects, while MKKP collected 2% and 3% respectively.

 Median: Opposition voters are less confident

In its latest poll, the liberal-minded Median, usually one of the most reliable polling agencies, found that the ruling alliance leads with 5% of the electorate, meaning they will have about 39%, while the opposition will remain at only 34%. . However, this was not the case among hard voters, with the opposition leading 45% to 44%.

 In another interesting feature of their survey, Median found that only one in two opposition voters believes in the success of the opposition alliance, and a third of those expecting those in power to be re-elected. In addition, almost two-thirds of the total population with the right to vote expect Victor Orban to remain in power.

 Government agencies: Fidesz is gaining strength, Marki-Zay is backing down

 If the general election is held this Sunday, the ruling Fidesz party will win 50% of the vote, while the opposition will garner 43% - a 6% drop in 2018, according to a new study by the Nezopont Institute, which also shows that the ruling parties have won 3% of all active voters living in Hungary since 2018. Of the 43% who would support the opposition alliance, about 33% are considered hard-line voters.

Nezopont expects turnout to be close to 70%

 Fidesz's other major sociologist, Sazadweg, on the other hand, focuses on the candidate for prime minister of the opposition alliance. 36% of respondents had a positive opinion of Peter Marki-Zay, and 56% expressed a negative opinion in the latest poll, which reflects a significant loss of popularity for the opposition politician in the last two months, Sazadweg said.