Recently released CIA maps show that the United States was well aware of the break-up of the former Yugoslav state of Yugoslavia in the 1970s, according to the Skopje-based newspaper Nova Makedonija.
According to the Serbian radio B-92, this document, which was drafted in the early 1970s, is now available to the public and talks about possible problems in the post-Yugoslavia, which is interesting because although Tito was already quite an adult, he died ten years after the document was drafted. Thus, Serbian media reported that the CIA had already sensed the bloody disintegration of Yugoslavia in advance.
"The potential for disaster is real," the document said, warning that if Eduard Kardeli (then chairman of the SFRY federal parliament, from Slovenia) or Costa Crvenkovski (then member of the SFRY presidency from Macedonia) demanded his resignation after Tito's death , Croats can secede, which can only be prevented by military action under Serbian rule and with Montenegrin generals.
"If this leads to extreme development, it could mean civil war," the CIA said in a statement.
The document also notes that Slovenia and Croatia are much richer than other parts of Yugoslavia, and underscores Croatia's aspirations for independence. Finally, the CIA's analysis has a guide that shows that Croatia has been ruled by Vienna and Budapest for many years, and that the country is likely to rely on the help of those countries in the event of disintegration. Interestingly, the US secret services even then pointed to the strong militant nationalism in Croatia and Serbia, which they believe has its roots in the time between the two world wars.
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